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Perhaps the Gold Market Does Care About America

10 Aug 2018 - Archive

Observers of the gold market have seen a fascinating new trend develop over the past decade or so.

What's happened?

The gold market has quickly shifted attention away from economic conditions in the United States, opting instead to react more to economic conditions in China, India, Russia, and Europe.

This shift is fascinating given that the gold market used to be dominated by policy and economic issues in America.

Is the long-term shift away from America over?
Given the decade-long movement away from an over-myopic view of U.S. economic conditions, this week's gold market movement may have surprised some.

Here's a look at the performance of the price of gold over the past week.

Overall, it was a very strong week for gold, with the precious metal up almost 3% for the week.

What or who was behind the strong gold price gains?

Interestingly, given the previous discussion's point that there's a decades-long shift away from America, the 3% gain came from weak economic conditions in the U.S.

The jump in the price of gold occurred even though conditions in Europe are coming in reasonably well.

The Two U.S. Charts That Bumped Up the Price of Gold

Here are the two charts that provided a large portion of the boost behind the gold price gains.

The first is the year-over-year growth in Retail Sales in the U.S.

As indicated, Retail Sales are now just 0.88% above where they were a year ago, a marked deceleration from the 4.40% peak in August 2014.

The second indicator boosting demand for gold was Industrial Production.

On a year-over-year basis, Industrial Production is now just 1.93%, well below the 4.44% in September 2014.

Conclusion
Overall, in the past 10 years the gold market has shifted attention away from U.S. economic conditions. Instead, China, Russia, Europe, and other areas of the globe have garnered a greater portion of gold market investors' interest.

Given what has transpired over the past decade or so, the fact that the gold market paid a good deal of attention to economic conditions in the U.S. may have surprised some.

Perhaps the gold market still cares about America, albeit at a diminished influence? 

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